Unemployment And The Real Estate Industry

There have been many reports recently stating that “experts” are seeing a turnaround in several segments of both the commercial and residential real estate markets here in New Zealand. But I find it hard to see this and put credibility on these reports. I justify this by saying there is no other crux that is more closely tied to the fundamentals of real estate than employment and there is no indication that we are close to seeing a peak in unemployment.
I say this because yesterday I had to do something I am really not proud of but I had to seek some financial assistance to get me through the times that most of us are experiencing. During the time I was at the IRD and other various offices talking to people there was a very clear trend happening. There is very little work out there and there are a lot of people seeking the same advise and help I was asking for. My bank manager told me that there were hundreds of people just from our branch on a 3 month mortgage holiday at the moment. Let’s hope those people can keep their homes once they come off.

We are presently at an unemployment rate of 5% nationally and economists estimate that there will be a peak of 9%-10% to as much as 11% before the trend reverses.
The national unemployment rate of 5% from the March quarter 2009 is a result of employers cutting more jobs to counter the lower sales and revenue being generated. This is the highest unemployment rate that this nation has seen since late 2003.  There have been a huge amount of jobs lost in the last 12 months and it’s not looking to stop.
Redundancy or job loss seriously impacts upon a families ability to meet their financial obligations. Buying food, paying utility bills, covering personal debt and making mortgage repayments represents a real and lasting challenge for those that don’t have adequate unemployment insurance in place.
People that were struggling with debt when they were in work are unlikely to find that losing their job helps their plight. The lack of a regular income also means that negotiating a suitable monthly repayment figure with creditors is vastly more difficult for cash-strapped families. Some debt solutions are also no longer available for struggling families.
Rising unemployment doesn’t just affect those that have lost their job, it also affects peoples’ ability to negotiate wages or secure a better employment package when they find a new job. Those that are actually in work fear for their own job security; employers realise that the bargaining power of their employees’ is reduced and are better placed to control wage inflation.
Since the start of the recession, redundancies and job cuts been lost across many sectors from retail to manufacturing, but the hardest hit industries for job loss has been finance, construction, tourism and real estate agents.
The effects of the credit crunch are flowing through to the real economy in New Zealand NOW and this meant 1000 people a week were signing up for the unemployment benefit, half of them in Auckland.
As unemployment rises, people who have either lost their job or fear losing their job do not move to a larger rental apartment and do not move from a rental unit to purchase a residence whether it is a single family home, or a matured family or an individual. People tend to stay at home longer and save money in a recession. People tend not to move around and spend money moving unnecessarily. This is one of the big reasons we are seeing a housing shortage in some areas of the country.
There are still buyers out there wanting to buy. Not in huge numbers but just enough to keep agents busy. But as I just said there is a shortage of houses for sale. It is easy to see how the fundamentals of Real Estate are tied into the unemployment ratio. As we see higher unemployment in New Zealand over this recession and winter we will see a slow Real Estate Market with both slow sales and possibly decreasing values as mortgage sales and desperate sellers compete.